Oil prices fell on Thursday as markets weighed the possibility of a U.S. and Iran deal. Another factor easing supply concerns is Abu Dhabi National Oil Co’s progress on a second pipeline designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and double its export capacity through Fujairah in 2027.
However, the market’s relief may be premature.
Tehran’s description of the proposed deal suggests it includes several terms that President Trump has previously rejected, including demands related to control of the Strait of Hormuz, compensation for war damage, sanctions relief, the release of frozen assets, and the withdrawal of U.S. troops.
That may explain why Brent and WTI have started to correct higher again. Traders appear to be reassessing whether the diplomatic optimism is justified, and whether the NACHO (Not A Chance Hormuz Opens) trade is still alive.
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