Fresh labor market data will likely be the focus this week, with payrolls, unemployment, and wage growth all carrying weight for the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Stronger-than-expected job reports could revive dollar demand, while weaker figures may keep pressure on the greenback as markets price in further Fed easing.
Nonfarm payrolls for September are projected at 39K, a modest improvement from August’s 22K, but still far below the levels seen through most of 2023 and earlier years (chart, top left).
The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3% (chart, top right).
Average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% month-on-month, matching August’s gain. That would keep annual wage growth steady, reflecting sticky wage pressures even as job creation softens.
The JOLTS job openings series remains elevated at 7.3 million (chart, bottom left), but still well below the peaks of 2022. This suggests firms are slower to post new jobs, but demand has not collapsed entirely.
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