Economists are divided over whether the Reserve Bank will raise the Official Cash Rate this week, although markets continue to price in some chance of a hike.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will release its July Monetary Policy Review at 2:00 p.m. on Wednesday.
ASB and Westpac have pushed back their forecasts for the next OCR increase after Brent crude fell to around US$72–73 a barrel, easing pressure on the inflation outlook. ASB now expects the RBNZ to keep the OCR on hold until September.
ANZ and BNZ continue to forecast an immediate 25 basis point hike, arguing that as oil prices fall, inflationary pressures should stay but shift from supply-driven to demand-driven.
Meanwhile, Kiwibank has brought forward its forecast for the next OCR increase, now expecting the RBNZ to begin raising rates in July instead of February 2027.
Trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.
