As we continue to emphasize, any bouts of weakness in the crypto market still look like pullbacks within a broader and constructive medium and longer term uptrend. In our view, any tone of negative sentiment appears misplaced when viewed against price action that continues to reward investors who treat these pullbacks as opportunities rather than threats.
We have highlighted the 50-week simple moving average as the first meaningful support for Bitcoin. Since breaking above this level in 2023, the market has not closed a week below it. The pattern repeated itself this past week, and we’re seeing similar price action again. From here, we’re looking for the next important higher low, with the outlook strengthened by another weekly close above the 50-week simple moving average.
We are also watching this week’s high in Bitcoin, just under 107,500. A break above that level would set the foundation for a broader rebound across the crypto complex. Seasonality also works in crypto’s favour despite a slow start to Q4. Historically, Q4 has delivered strong performance, and this year’s backdrop of accelerating adoption, regulatory progress, and continued institutional development reinforces the potential for a strong finish to the year.
Macro conditions are becoming more supportive as Fed rate expectations tilt back toward the dovish side, while the US government shutdown comes to an end. Risk appetite has also been buoyed by renewed buying interest in US equities, adding another supportive factor for crypto.
Ultimately, it comes down to confidence and patience. The stage remains set for a robust run into year end, one that could take Bitcoin and ETH to fresh record highs. Even if this outlook proves unreliable and Bitcoin continues to break down, we struggle to see weakness extending much below 90,000, with the market likely to build long exposure at what many would view as highly attractive levels.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
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