*Please note; The author is working from UTC +13 when determining the timeline of data releases.
What is consumer confidence going to suggest this week? 21 Feb – 26 Feb, 2022
This week will be excellent for gauging consumers’ confidence from several critical global economies and their respective general robustness by proxy.
Besides the events detailed below, a quick note should be made on the loan prime rate decision from the People’s Bank of China on Monday, which should pull investors’ attention. The Chinese 1-year loan prime rate is currently set at 3.7%, and against the trend of most major economies, may still be trimmed.
Wednesday, February 23:
US CB Consumer Confidence FEB
DE GfK Consumer Confidence MAR
Consumer confidence reports from the US and Germany are due on Wednesday.
The CB February report from the US is expected to show that confidence in the robustness of the US economy is shrinking. The main culprit for shrinking confidence is likely to be runaway inflation in the nation and perhaps a distrust in the fed’s ability to react with the exact level of aggression needed to tame inflation.
Germany’s consumer confidence report is also due Wednesday. The GfK March report is expected to show that Germans are growing in confidence in the economy. While still in negative territory, a rise to -4 from -6.7 points is expected, and with it, a possible boost in the confidence of the EUR over the long term.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Interest Rate Decision is tucked away between Wednesday’s confidence data. Much like the US Fed’s interest rate decision due in a couple of weeks, talk concerning the RBNZ’s decision centres on whether we will see a rate hike of 25 basis points or 50 basis points.
Friday, February 25:
UK Gfk Consumer Confidence FEB
UK consumer confidence for February will be gauged on Friday afternoon. Like Germany, the UK’s Gfk February report is expected to rise 3 points but remains negative as it moves from -19 to -16.
Like the US, inflation in the UK appears to largely drive the negativity in the confidence index. UK consumer confidence has been trending lower the past three months, so a reversal in the index value may be a bullish sign for the British economy and the GBP.
