Markets ended a subdued session as attention turned to the upcoming US jobs report, with the dollar retreating after a surprising ADP jobs print far below what was expected. Focus is also on President Trump’s fiscal bill, which faces resistance in the House, with Congressman Thomas Massie claiming enough votes to block its passage.
Bond yields stay high, driven by rising European and UK rates after UK Prime Minister Starmer’s controversial welfare reform reversal, leaving him and Chancellor Rachel Reeves politically vulnerable. The pound recovered partially but remains under pressure, while dollar-yen fluctuated but ended with a stronger yen.
Elsewhere, Poland unexpectedly cut rates to 5%, and Canada’s manufacturing PMI fell. Trump’s new trade deal with Vietnam, which included a 20% tariff on direct exports and 4% on transshipped goods—likely targeting Chinese rerouting—strengthened the Chinese yuan.
All eyes are now on today’s non-farm payrolls report. A weak result could boost expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Remember, the US will be closed for the 4th of July, so economic data has been bumped up to Thursday.
For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
