- Trump’s rhetoric about Canada’s viability and trade policies is creating political uncertainty, weakening Pierre Poilievre’s position.
- This uncertainty is impacting the Canadian dollar, with USDCAD breaking key support levels as markets react.
Six weeks ago, a Conservative victory in the next Canadian election seemed inevitable.
Now, that certainty is fading. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s support from the American right, including Elon Musk, is becoming a potential liability as Canada faces an unprecedented challenge: the U.S. president openly questioning its viability as a nation, threatening tariffs, and even suggesting annexation.
A recent Nanos poll shows 39.6% of Canadians see new Liberal leader Mark Carney as the most qualified to negotiate with Trump, compared to 26% for Poilievre.
This uncertainty may be weighing on the Canadian dollar. USDCAD broke lower last week, falling below key support (1.4260 – 1.4466), signaling a shift toward sellers. However, the 1-hour chart shows a minor upward trendline defining the current pullback.
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