- Key swing states, especially Pennsylvania, will be pivotal in determining the outcome, with their results potentially tipping the balance in the presidential race.
- The U.S. dollar could see significant movement depending on the election result, with a Trump win potentially boosting the dollar and a Harris win possibly weakening it in favor of commodities and the euro.
This week, the U.S. presidential election will command everyone’s attention.
Market watchers will be focused on a handful of pivotal swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is potentially the most critical.
Yet, the results may not be immediate. In 2020, for instance, the Associated Press declared Biden the official winner about three and a half days after polls closed.
This time around, a win by Trump could strengthen the dollar, driven by the possibility of heightened tariffs that may also weigh on currencies closely linked to China, such as the Australian dollar. With daily MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) in negative territory, AUD/USD appears on track to test the next support at 0.6490, aligned with a trend line since October 2023
In contrast, Newsquawk suggests that a Harris victory could pressure the dollar, with potential gains in commodities and the euro.
