- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to keep its interest rate unchanged, with a 97% probability for rates to remain at the current level.
- ANZ has revised its forecast for the first RBA interest rate cut to February 2025, diverging from the other major banks that previously anticipated a cut this November.
A potentially interesting week awaits the Aussie dollar, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expected to hold its interest rate unchanged. Money markets price around a 97% chance for rates to remain at the current level and only a 3% probability of a 25-basis point cut.
Last week, ANZ became the first of the big four banks to push their prediction of a RBA interest rate cut into 2025. The bank now expects the first RBA cash rate reduction to come in February. Before this shift, ANZ was aligned with CBA, NAB, and Westpac in forecasting a cut this November.
A look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading within a very mild descending channel formation or a range between 0.6577 and 0.6690. A decisive break above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before breaking 0.6709 could indicate an extension higher to a target at 0.6713. A decisive break below the range floor could indicate a follow-through to at least 0.6556.
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