The RBNZ is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate at 3.25% this Wednesday.
NZIER’s Shadow Board advises against a cut, noting the economy remains weak but inflation pressures are mixed. Markets see just a 10–15% chance of a cut this week but still price for further easing by October.
NZD/USD has pulled back sharply from 0.6100, with price now possibly consolidating around 0.6000. This area coincides with a key support-turned-resistance level that capped price action in mid-June.
If the pair breaks below 0.5980, the next support sits near 0.5935 – a level that triggered a strong bounce on June 21. A break below that could open the way toward 0.5900 and 0.5860.
On the upside, if the 0.6000 handle holds, short-term resistance lies at 0.6030, with stronger pressure at 0.6065.
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