GBP/USD Alert: Next Week’s Inflation Forecast

  • Upcoming UK and US inflation data releases are crucial factors influencing the GBP/USD currency pair.

The week is relatively quiet, so we are looking ahead to next week’s major events. With UK and US inflation released one day apart, perhaps the GBP/USD is the pair to watch. 

On February 14, U.S. inflation rate data is set to be released. Despite the diminishing market expectations for a Fed rate cut in March, if U.S. inflation falls below 3.0% this month, there might be renewed hopes for some rate relief. With expectations still hovering around 20% for a March rate hike, market participants may grasp onto any positive news to maintain the possibility of such a move. The question arises: what is the threshold for rate-cut enthusiasts? Perhaps 2.8% or below? 

Moving on to February 15, UK inflation rate data will be released. 

Some policy makers are already calling for rate cuts from the Bank of England (Board member Swati Dhingra voted for a 25-basis point cut during the last meeting). Will a significant decrease in UK inflation this month guarantee this course of action sooner than previously thought? Dhingra makes a sound argument for loosening monetary policy at this point pointing to weak consumption and the low likelihood that inflation resurges. But will anyone else on the BoE board join her on her dovish stance? 

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