The dollar has opened December on the back foot, especially against the yen, as dollar yen sinks to a two week low after BOJ Governor Waya offered his strongest signal yet of a potential rate hike this month. That move pushed Japan’s two year yield above 1 percent for the first time since 2008. The hawkish hint contrasted with weak Japanese data, where Q3 capital spending grew well below expectations amid softer corporate sentiment.
China’s November PMI also disappointed, with both the official composite and the private manufacturing gauge slipping back into contraction. Europe’s final Eurozone composite PMI was nudged down as well. Risk sentiment is fragile globally, with US equity futures notably lower led by the Nasdaq, and Bitcoin pulling back into the 85k area, though holding up relatively well on confirmation that OPEC will pause production hikes in Q1 2026.
In the US, Black Friday sales rose 4.1 percent, highlighting consumer resilience ahead of anticipated Fed easing. Today’s focus turns to the ISM manufacturing report, particularly employment and prices paid, with Fed officials now in blackout and only the BOE’s Dingra on the speaking calendar.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
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