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AUD/NZD risk: What’s priced in?

  • Standard Chartered sees upside risk for AUD/NZD, with potential support above 1.11 if the RBA surprises markets with a hawkish stance.

Standard Chartered economists see upside risk for AUD/NZD at current levels, especially if the RBA delivers a hawkish hold at its February meeting. 

They note that the RBA-RBNZ rate differential, currently at 50bps, could widen further, supporting AUD/NZD above 1.11. A decision to keep rates unchanged could surprise markets, pushing AUD/USD even higher. 

If the RBA signals fewer or smaller cuts ahead—a “hawkish cut”—AUD/NZD could move beyond 1.122. Meanwhile, RSI suggests buyers are gaining momentum, with room to climb before reaching overbought levels. 

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