- Gold’s rally may be losing momentum as geopolitical risks ease, the Fed turns more hawkish, Bitcoin declines, and Trump’s trade policies appear less aggressive than expected.
Gold can thrive on uncertainty, and for the past three years, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a key driver. However, recent developments hopefully suggest a possible shift toward peace. While a complete resolution is uncertain, the beginning of peace talks, no matter how flawed they appear, could weaken gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Gold benefits from lower interest rates, as it competes with yield-bearing assets like bonds. Earlier in the year, markets expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates aggressively. However, recent economic data and Trump’s economic policies mean inflation could be a greater concern than initially thought. This has led to doubts about how quickly the Fed will ease policy. If rate cuts are delayed or scaled back, gold’s upside could be limited.
Gold and Bitcoin are seen as alternative stores of value. Bitcoin has recently fallen about 20% from its highs. This could suggest a broader shift in risk sentiment, potentially impacting gold if investors move back into the U.S. dollar or other assets.
Markets initially expected Trump to push aggressive tariffs, which would have fueled inflation and boosted gold. However, so far, his rhetoric has been more meandering than expected, with only a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. If markets believe that Trump’s trade policies will be less disruptive than previously thought, gold could lose a key bullish narrative.
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