Today we have the RBNZ policy decision, and tomorrow we get the FOMC meeting minutes.
The RBNZ is expected to keep the OCR unchanged at 2.25%. At the last meeting, the Bank’s forecasts suggested a pause through 2026. But the market disagrees and is now pricing in around 37 bps of tightening by the end of 2026 after the last reading of inflation was above the RBNZ’s 1% to 3% target band. ING expects two rate hikes in Q3 this year.
On the daily chart, NZDUSD has been consolidating near the highs after the strong rally in late January. The 20-day moving average is underpinning the current price.
If a less-than-expected hawkish tone is delivered by RBNZ governor during her public remarks after the decision, we might see some downside in the pair. 0.59482 is a recent support area to watch on any pullback, ahead of the zone where the 50 day and 200 day moving averages converge.
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