The USDJPY spiked lower following the Fed’s 25 basis point cut yesterday but quickly reversed trajectory as the dot plot projections from the FOMC came in softer than markets had expected.
The updated dot plot showed a narrow majority of FOMC members anticipating two more small rate cuts in 2025, while others leaned toward just one or even none.
This potentially suggests that the Fed is not simply aligning with Trump sycophant and newly appointed FOMC board member Stephen Miran’s aggressive call for repeated 50-basis-point cuts and instead signals an element of independence.
USDJPY (left chart, 1H): The pair has carved out a sharp V-shaped reversal after its Fed-driven dip, showing strong bullish momentum. This suggests buyers remain in control unless a reversal candle (such as a bearish engulfing) forms.
XAUUSD (right chart, 4H): Gold’s rally topped out near 3,707 before pulling back more than 600 pips to 3,646. The most recent candles show shorter bodies with upper wicks — a potential sign of fading momentum and supply pressure. If this develops into a bearish continuation pattern, the channel’s border becomes the next area of focus.
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