The US dollar remains under pressure despite a stronger-than-expected US NFIB small business optimism survey, as markets remain bearish following last Friday’s disappointing NFPs, pushing the dollar index to a 7-week low. Expectations of significant downward revisions are fueling speculation of a more dovish Federal Reserve, with a 111% implied probability of a rate cut on September 17th. While a 50 basis point cut is possible, the Fed might opt for smaller 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December.
Meanwhile, the dollar yen fell despite an initial spike influenced by Japan’s political shifts and potential Bank of Japan rate hikes to support the yen. Euro dollar hit a multi-week high but faced pressure from France’s political crisis after Prime Minister Beiru lost a confidence vote, raising concerns about French debt.
Elsewhere, dollar CAD saw slight gains amid upcoming central bank decisions, with a potential boost for the Canadian dollar from a possible $20 billion acquisition of tech resources by Anglo-American. On the global stage, the ECB may hike rates in late 2026, while Ukraine reported tragic losses from a Russian airstrike, dimming hopes for peace.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
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