Before the war, many global investors had been positioned long on both the Nikkei 225 and the DAX. The pullback in Japanese equities is particularly notable given the Nikkei’s strong start to 2026.
Japan and Germany are both in a highly vulnerable position as the Iran war threatens crude oil flows. Japan is especially sensitive, with around 90% of its oil imports coming from the Middle East.
The Nikkei is now approaching corrective territory, while its one-year implied volatility gauge has climbed to its highest level since the pandemic.
In Germany, the DAX 40 remains vulnerable because of its heavy weighting in industrials, autos, and chemicals. These sectors are particularly sensitive to rising energy costs.
On Monday, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius rejected demands by U.S. President Donald Trump for military support, saying, “What does Trump expect a handful of European frigates to do in the Strait of Hormuz that the powerful U.S. navy cannot do?”
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