The Fed appears to have limited scope to ease, while the RBA is still leaning toward further tightening. In the near term, this could support the Australian dollar from a rate differential perspective.
The balance remains sensitive to incoming U.S. data this week. A stronger than expected payrolls release could reinforce dollar strength and cap AUDUSD upside. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to slow to 73,000, down from 178,000 previously.
On Saturday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted that inflation pressures are not limited to energy or tariff driven sectors but are also evident in services. This possibly reduces the scope for near term rate cuts, keeping U.S. yields supported and limiting downside in the dollar.
In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia is possibly leaning further into tightening. Markets are pricing an 81% probability of a 25-basis point rate increase, which would take the cash rate to 4.35% and mark a third consecutive hike. If the RBA signals that inflation risks are becoming more structural, expectations for additional hikes could build.
For AUDUSD, this possibly creates a clear policy divergence. The Fed is cautious on cuts, while the RBA may still have more work to do.
For the exact date and time of major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
Trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.
