Headline risk would indicate that there will be chaos in the oil market after the invasion of Venezuela and the extraction of its dictator to the US over the weekend.
But markets had already begun pricing in Venezuela related disruption. And estimates put Venezuelan output at roughly around one million barrels per day, which is under 1 percent of global production, and exports have been closer to about half of that in recent weeks.
That helps explain why the oil move could be limited to the upside.
There is also a scenario where prices ease rather than surge. A regime change raises the possibility of higher Venezuelan production over time if sanctions and investment constraints are relaxed. Trump has said major U.S. oil companies will begin to invest billions to restore output. At present, Chevron is the only major U.S. company operating in Venezuela under a special license.
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