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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to lower its interest rate at its 8 October meeting, though the scale of easing remains in debate. Market pricing currently leans toward a 25 basis-point reduction, with a roughly a 55.5% probability of that outcome and 44.5% odds of a larger cut. 

Scenario Analysis 

• If the RBNZ cuts by 25 bps: 
  As this is the base case, markets might only see modest downside pressure on NZD/USD. The pair could drift toward 0.5750 and potentially 0.5700 if the Bank signals further easing ahead. 

• If the RBNZ cuts by 50 bps: 
  A larger-than-expected cut could accelerate NZD selling, particularly if accompanied by a dovish tone. In this scenario, NZD/USD could break below 0.5750 support and test 0.5600 in the days following the decision. 

• If the RBNZ holds rates steady: 
  A surprise hold could trigger a short-covering rally, pushing the pair back above 0.5900 and potentially retesting the 0.6000 area as traders reprice the path of policy easing. 

หากต้องการทราบวันที่และเวลาที่แน่นอนของเหตุการณ์ทางเศรษฐกิจที่สำคัญเหล่านี้ โปรดนำเข้า ปฏิทินเศรษฐกิจ BlackBull Markets เพื่อรับการแจ้งเตือนในกล่องจดหมายอีเมลของคุณโดยตรง

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