The pound’s sharp rebound — up two big figures in under 48 hours — has traders scratching their heads despite UK August GDP hitting the expected 0.1% gain, with July revised lower to -0.1%.
In Australia, September’s weak jobs report pushed unemployment to a near four-year high at 4.5%, spiking RBA November cut odds from 10 basis points to nearly 19 basis points. Westpac blames surging participation and slowing care-economy jobs, with youth unemployment hitting a cycle high of 10.5%.
France’s PM Loru survived expected no-confidence votes by ditching pension reforms until 2027 and securing socialist support, now facing budget negotiations.
ECB’s Wunsch and Kosher signalled rates are on hold with cut odds fading as the cycle nears its end. BOJ’s Tamura doubled down on tightening amid rising inflation risks, while Japan’s Takahichi’s PM bid hinges on Friday’s policy talks with the Innovation Party.
Today brings light U.S. data in the form of the Philly Fed and NAHB, plus a packed speaker slate. Fed’s Waller, Barr, Moran, and Bowman are all on the docket, along with ECB’s Wunsch, Kosher, Lane, Lagarde, and BOE’s Mann and Greene.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
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