USD/JPY is pushing into the top half of 155, and that’s the level both banks and policymakers care about.
Goldman Sachs says the yen can still weaken near-term, but the upside from here is limited because intervention becomes more likely the higher the pair goes.
Credit Agricole notes that Japan’s Ministry of Finance has already issued warnings, though its intervention gauge is only at 4 out of 7, not yet at the point where Tokyo typically steps into the market.
Every tick above 155 increases the probability of verbal or direct intervention. If price clears 156 decisively, those warnings could intensify. If the move becomes fast or disorderly, the risk of actual intervention rises sharply.
Possible weak support sits at 38.2% fib level noted on the chart. If the pair breaks below that level, it could be the first sign that intervention talk is starting to influence price action.
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