Could the Reserve Bank of Australia be the first major central bank to hike rates in this cycle?
A 25-basis point hike is the market consensus, but it is not a clean call. Economists only shifted toward a hike over the past couple of weeks, which is why predictions are still mixed.
It is not unrealistic for the RBA to look past rising inflation and decide that the case for an immediate hike is not fully settled.
Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are among the major banks still forecasting the RBA to hold rates.
When expectations are this divided, the reaction in the Australian dollar can be sharp. A 50+ pip move in AUD around the decision is very much on the table.
The RBA policy statement is due at 2.30pm local time (3rd Feb). Governor Michele Bullock is scheduled to host a press conference at 3.30pm.
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