- Market expectations clash with Powell’s remarks on a 30% chance of a March rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.
The market is only pricing in a 30% chance of a rate cut from the US Fed in March now. Is this probability too high still? Jerome Powell spoke after the latest FOMC decision yesterday and noted that it was unlikely that the Fed would be cutting rates in March.
Why is the market still pricing in a 30% chance? Should it not be closer to 10% or less? So, according to this hypothesis, might there be an opportunity to go long on the US dollar until at least March?
And then, thinking a little further past March: When the Fed does finally cut its rate, is there a play to make by anticipating how large of a cut they will enact? The Fed is known for acting a little late, so a 50bps cut, rather than a 25bps cut, is not entirely unlikely as they rush to loosen their grip on the economy if it begins overshooting their target (constricts too much).
