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• The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) fell below the crucial 0.6500 support level for the first time since early May, signaling potential further declines and trading opportunities in the currency pair

Australia’s weaker-than-expected June core inflation report, released Wednesday, propelled the stock market to a new peak.  

However, the Australian dollar (AUD/USD) extended its losses, breaking below the crucial 0.65300 support level for the first time since early May. 

Most economists now predict that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain its current cash rate at its upcoming meeting on Tuesday. 

Before this week’s data, financial markets had estimated a roughly one-in-four chance of a 25-basis point rate hike by the RBA in August. Forecasts had suggested that inflation might rise to 3.8%-4.0%, sparking concerns that the RBA might need to hike rates again to ensure inflation trends downward. 

However, markets have now largely ruled out further RBA rate hikes and are even anticipating up to three 0.25% cuts by December next year. There is seemingly a ~50% chance of an RBA rate cut in November now, earlier than previous forecasts. 

Overall, more declines in the AUD/USD could be expected as the pair remains below the 200-day SMA. 

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